DDM Analysis: NIL-B.ST

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$149.74 - $584.68	$254.04
Multi-Stage	$144.66 - $158.66	$151.53
Blended Fair Value	$202.78
Current Price	$51.90
Upside	290.72%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-24.21%	-10.40%	1.00	5.06	5.00	2.00	0.00	4.00	4.00	3.60	3.00	3.50
YoY Growth	-	-	-80.24%	1.20%	149.98%	0.00%	-100.00%	0.00%	11.11%	20.00%	-14.29%	16.67%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.64%	7.31%	6.94%	2.01%	0.00%	16.26%	5.47%	4.11%	3.52%	7.94%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	59.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	17.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)	41.98

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	11.82	7.39	4.43
Cash Retained (M)	41.98	41.98	41.98
(-) Cash Required (M)	-11.82	-7.39	-4.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)	30.17	34.60	37.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	11.40	11.40	11.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share	2.65	3.03	3.29
LTM Dividend per Share	1.50	1.50	1.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share	2.65	3.03	3.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend	4.15	4.53	4.79
WACC / Discount Rate	6.33%	6.33%	6.33%
Growth Rate	3.47%	4.47%	5.47%
Fair Value	$149.74	$254.04	$584.68
Upside / Downside	188.51%	389.48%	1,026.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	59.09	61.73	64.49	67.37	70.38	73.53	75.73
Payout Ratio	28.94%	41.16%	53.37%	65.58%	77.79%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	17.10	25.40	34.41	44.18	54.75	66.17	70.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.33%	6.33%	6.33%
Growth Rate	3.47%	4.47%	5.47%
Year 1 PV (M)	23.66	23.89	24.12
Year 2 PV (M)	29.86	30.44	31.02
Year 3 PV (M)	35.70	36.74	37.81
Year 4 PV (M)	41.21	42.82	44.49
Year 5 PV (M)	46.39	48.68	51.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,472.59	1,545.14	1,620.52
Equity Value (M)	1,649.40	1,727.71	1,809.00
Shares Outstanding (M)	11.40	11.40	11.40
Fair Value	$144.66	$151.53	$158.66
Upside / Downside	178.73%	191.96%	205.70%

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Nilörngruppen AB (NIL-B.ST)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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