DDM Analysis: JCI

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$35.39 - $62.37	$46.84
Multi-Stage	$45.25 - $49.52	$47.35
Blended Fair Value	$47.09
Current Price	$109.95
Upside	-57.17%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	4.32%	4.04%	1.49	1.52	1.49	1.39	1.16	1.20	1.40	1.45	1.07	1.39
YoY Growth	-	-	-2.40%	2.04%	6.99%	20.21%	-3.54%	-14.13%	-3.56%	35.90%	-23.28%	39.27%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.35%	1.93%	2.59%	2.18%	1.43%	2.58%	3.44%	4.90%	2.80%	3.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,721.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	976.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	745.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	344.20	215.13	129.08
Cash Retained (M)	745.00	745.00	745.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-344.20	-215.13	-129.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)	400.80	529.88	615.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	656.95	656.95	656.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.61	0.81	0.94
LTM Dividend per Share	1.49	1.49	1.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.61	0.81	0.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.10	2.29	2.42
WACC / Discount Rate	8.08%	8.08%	8.08%
Growth Rate	2.04%	3.04%	4.04%
Fair Value	$35.39	$46.84	$62.37
Upside / Downside	-67.81%	-57.40%	-43.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,721.00	1,773.27	1,827.13	1,882.62	1,939.80	1,998.71	2,058.67
Payout Ratio	56.71%	63.37%	70.03%	76.68%	83.34%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	976.00	1,123.70	1,279.48	1,443.68	1,616.67	1,798.84	1,904.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.08%	8.08%	8.08%
Growth Rate	2.04%	3.04%	4.04%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,029.61	1,039.70	1,049.79
Year 2 PV (M)	1,074.18	1,095.34	1,116.70
Year 3 PV (M)	1,110.54	1,143.52	1,177.13
Year 4 PV (M)	1,139.49	1,184.82	1,231.49
Year 5 PV (M)	1,161.72	1,219.77	1,280.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)	24,212.12	25,422.04	26,679.85
Equity Value (M)	29,727.66	31,105.18	32,535.09
Shares Outstanding (M)	656.95	656.95	656.95
Fair Value	$45.25	$47.35	$49.52
Upside / Downside	-58.84%	-56.94%	-54.96%

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Johnson Controls International plc (JCI)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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