Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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PT Indospring Tbk (INDS.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$152.60 - $281.06$205.53
Multi-Stage$254.95 - $279.53$267.01
Blended Fair Value$236.27
Current Price$234.00
Upside0.97%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.12%2.98%10.5610.567.498.479.829.999.994.920.005.42
YoY Growth--0.03%40.96%-11.59%-13.74%-1.65%0.00%103.09%0.00%-100.00%-31.21%
Dividend Yield--4.98%4.78%0.37%0.39%0.53%0.76%4.78%3.09%0.00%1.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)68,906.81
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)56,193.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)12,713.79
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13,781.368,613.355,168.01
Cash Retained (M)12,713.7912,713.7912,713.79
(-) Cash Required (M)-13,781.36-8,613.35-5,168.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)-1,067.574,100.447,545.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,562.506,562.506,562.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.160.621.15
LTM Dividend per Share8.568.568.56
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.160.621.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.409.199.71
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate0.98%1.98%2.98%
Fair Value$152.60$205.53$281.06
Upside / Downside-34.79%-12.17%20.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)68,906.8170,271.8471,663.9173,083.5674,531.3376,007.7878,288.01
Payout Ratio81.55%83.24%84.93%86.62%88.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)56,193.0158,493.8860,863.8563,304.7765,818.5168,407.0072,416.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate0.98%1.98%2.98%
Year 1 PV (M)54,365.0154,903.3855,441.75
Year 2 PV (M)52,574.7953,621.2254,677.97
Year 3 PV (M)50,823.3852,348.2753,903.36
Year 4 PV (M)49,111.6151,086.0853,119.50
Year 5 PV (M)47,440.1249,836.0752,327.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,418,793.141,490,448.861,564,970.93
Equity Value (M)1,673,108.041,752,243.881,834,441.37
Shares Outstanding (M)6,562.506,562.506,562.50
Fair Value$254.95$267.01$279.53
Upside / Downside8.95%14.11%19.46%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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