Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ticker

Industry

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Infratil Limited (IFT.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Renewable UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.93 - $9.11$7.41
Multi-Stage$13.48 - $14.84$14.15
Blended Fair Value$10.78
Current Price$10.26
Upside5.05%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-1.74%-1.64%0.220.240.300.220.210.240.240.190.190.21
YoY Growth---9.37%-19.33%36.92%3.01%-11.17%-3.20%30.39%1.05%-13.77%-15.90%
Dividend Yield--2.11%2.20%3.19%2.68%2.98%5.82%5.71%6.16%6.54%6.14%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)568.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)271.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)296.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)113.6271.0142.61
Cash Retained (M)296.20296.20296.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-113.62-71.01-42.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)182.58225.19253.59
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)872.10872.10872.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.260.29
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.260.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.520.570.60
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate-2.12%-1.12%-0.12%
Fair Value$5.93$7.41$9.11
Upside / Downside-42.25%-27.80%-11.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)568.10561.76555.50549.30543.17537.11553.23
Payout Ratio47.86%56.29%64.72%73.14%81.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)271.90316.21359.50401.78443.08483.40511.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate-2.12%-1.12%-0.12%
Year 1 PV (M)293.93296.93299.93
Year 2 PV (M)310.62316.99323.44
Year 3 PV (M)322.69332.68342.87
Year 4 PV (M)330.77344.50358.65
Year 5 PV (M)335.45352.93371.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,164.8210,694.7611,246.58
Equity Value (M)11,758.2712,338.8012,942.62
Shares Outstanding (M)872.10872.10872.10
Fair Value$13.48$14.15$14.84
Upside / Downside31.41%37.90%44.65%

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