Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Holcim Ltd (HOLN.SW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$447.51 - $876.06$616.98
Multi-Stage$694.81 - $763.95$728.71
Blended Fair Value$672.85
Current Price$58.90
Upside1,042.36%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS37.28%13.99%2.832.552.402.202.200.582.152.181.640.76
YoY Growth--11.03%6.32%8.84%-0.16%280.12%-72.99%-1.65%33.33%114.39%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.99%3.17%4.07%4.86%3.97%1.64%4.27%4.17%2.77%1.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)15,419.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,714.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)13,705.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,083.801,927.381,156.43
Cash Retained (M)13,705.0013,705.0013,705.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,083.80-1,927.38-1,156.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)10,621.2011,777.6312,548.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)555.17555.17555.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share19.1321.2122.60
LTM Dividend per Share3.093.093.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share19.1321.2122.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend22.2224.3025.69
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate1.29%2.29%3.29%
Fair Value$447.51$616.98$876.06
Upside / Downside659.78%947.51%1,387.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)15,419.0015,771.6416,132.3416,501.3016,878.6917,264.7117,782.65
Payout Ratio11.12%26.89%42.67%58.45%74.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,714.004,241.456,883.629,644.4212,527.9115,538.2416,448.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate1.29%2.29%3.29%
Year 1 PV (M)3,950.483,989.484,028.49
Year 2 PV (M)5,971.556,090.046,209.70
Year 3 PV (M)7,792.588,025.688,263.37
Year 4 PV (M)9,427.989,805.8610,194.98
Year 5 PV (M)10,891.2311,439.5912,009.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)347,705.37365,212.01383,416.82
Equity Value (M)385,739.19404,562.67424,123.18
Shares Outstanding (M)555.17555.17555.17
Fair Value$694.81$728.71$763.95
Upside / Downside1,079.64%1,137.20%1,197.02%

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