Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Rederiaktiebolaget Gotland (publ) (GOTL-A.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$242.60 - $348.98$294.52
Multi-Stage$368.19 - $402.73$385.13
Blended Fair Value$339.83
Current Price$2,700.00
Upside-87.41%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820032001
DPS5.78%0.00%9.808.208.208.000.007.407.005.088.240.00
YoY Growth--19.51%0.00%2.50%0.00%-100.00%5.71%37.76%-38.33%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.46%0.38%0.44%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%2.12%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)85.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)50.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)34.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17.0410.656.39
Cash Retained (M)34.4034.4034.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-17.04-10.65-6.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)17.3623.7528.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2.502.502.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share6.949.5011.20
LTM Dividend per Share20.3220.3220.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share6.949.5011.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend27.2629.8231.52
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-1.11%-0.11%0.89%
Fair Value$242.60$294.52$348.98
Upside / Downside-91.01%-89.09%-87.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)85.2085.1085.0184.9184.8284.7287.26
Payout Ratio59.62%65.70%71.77%77.85%83.92%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)50.8055.9161.0166.1071.1876.2580.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-1.11%-0.11%0.89%
Year 1 PV (M)50.3250.8351.34
Year 2 PV (M)49.4250.4251.44
Year 3 PV (M)48.1949.6651.17
Year 4 PV (M)46.7048.6250.59
Year 5 PV (M)45.0247.3449.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)680.85715.98752.54
Equity Value (M)920.50962.861,006.85
Shares Outstanding (M)2.502.502.50
Fair Value$368.19$385.13$402.73
Upside / Downside-86.36%-85.74%-85.08%

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