DDM Analysis: GALP.LS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$24.06 - $51.50	$34.27
Multi-Stage	$31.02 - $34.01	$32.49
Blended Fair Value	$33.38
Current Price	$16.10
Upside	107.34%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-5.57%	4.31%	0.56	0.57	0.56	0.67	0.53	0.75	0.69	0.66	0.52	0.43
YoY Growth	-	-	-0.71%	0.48%	-15.66%	25.13%	-28.67%	8.98%	4.28%	26.87%	21.62%	15.77%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.47%	3.60%	5.39%	5.80%	5.39%	7.20%	4.75%	4.30%	3.65%	3.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	975.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	480.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	495.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	195.00	121.88	73.13
Cash Retained (M)	495.00	495.00	495.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-195.00	-121.88	-73.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)	300.00	373.13	421.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	745.02	745.02	745.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.40	0.50	0.57
LTM Dividend per Share	0.64	0.64	0.64
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.40	0.50	0.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.05	1.15	1.21
WACC / Discount Rate	6.76%	6.76%	6.76%
Growth Rate	2.31%	3.31%	4.31%
Fair Value	$24.06	$34.27	$51.50
Upside / Downside	49.44%	112.86%	219.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	975.00	1,007.24	1,040.54	1,074.94	1,110.48	1,147.20	1,181.62
Payout Ratio	49.23%	57.38%	65.54%	73.69%	81.85%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	480.00	578.00	681.95	792.15	908.89	1,032.48	1,093.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.76%	6.76%	6.76%
Growth Rate	2.31%	3.31%	4.31%
Year 1 PV (M)	536.17	541.41	546.65
Year 2 PV (M)	586.82	598.35	609.99
Year 3 PV (M)	632.31	651.03	670.12
Year 4 PV (M)	672.99	699.69	727.18
Year 5 PV (M)	709.18	744.52	781.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)	19,976.10	20,971.66	22,006.52
Equity Value (M)	23,113.56	24,206.66	25,341.72
Shares Outstanding (M)	745.02	745.02	745.02
Fair Value	$31.02	$32.49	$34.01
Upside / Downside	92.70%	101.81%	111.27%

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Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. (GALP.LS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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