Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $405.08 - $805.01 | $561.58 |
| Multi-Stage | $298.42 - $326.09 | $312.00 |
| Blended Fair Value | $436.79 | |
| Current Price | $825.18 | |
| Upside | -47.07% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 24.08% | 17.61% | 1.20 | 0.86 | 0.57 | 0.49 | 0.44 | 0.41 | 0.35 | 0.31 | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 40.77% | 51.31% | 15.49% | 12.16% | 6.57% | 18.54% | 11.66% | 7.04% | 9.68% | 10.82% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 0.37% | 0.27% | 0.39% | 0.55% | 0.58% | 1.12% | 0.65% | 0.75% | 0.79% | 0.83% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 837.62 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 60.12 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 777.50 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 167.52 | 104.70 | 62.82 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 777.50 | 777.50 | 777.50 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -167.52 | -104.70 | -62.82 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 609.98 | 672.80 | 714.68 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 35.53 | 35.53 | 35.53 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 17.17 | 18.94 | 20.12 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.69 | 1.69 | 1.69 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 17.17 | 18.94 | 20.12 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 18.86 | 20.63 | 21.81 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 10.41% | 10.41% | 10.41% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $405.08 | $561.58 | $805.01 |
| Upside / Downside | -50.91% | -31.94% | -2.44% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 837.62 | 892.07 | 950.05 | 1,011.81 | 1,077.57 | 1,147.61 | 1,182.04 |
| Payout Ratio | 7.18% | 23.74% | 40.31% | 56.87% | 73.44% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 60.12 | 211.79 | 382.93 | 575.42 | 791.32 | 1,032.85 | 1,093.39 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 10.41% | 10.41% | 10.41% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 190.02 | 191.82 | 193.62 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 308.24 | 314.11 | 320.04 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 415.57 | 427.50 | 439.66 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 512.74 | 532.46 | 552.74 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 600.44 | 629.44 | 659.55 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 8,575.47 | 8,989.67 | 9,419.72 |
| Equity Value (M) | 10,602.48 | 11,085.00 | 11,585.33 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 35.53 | 35.53 | 35.53 |
| Fair Value | $298.42 | $312.00 | $326.09 |
| Upside / Downside | -63.84% | -62.19% | -60.48% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MDC | M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. | 0.86% | $0.54 | 55.94% |
| AXP | American Express Company | 0.85% | $3.17 | 20.85% |
| FOXA | Fox Corporation | 0.85% | $0.62 | 13.96% |
| LMST | Limestone Bancorp, Inc. | 0.85% | $0.20 | 8.06% |
| RCL | Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. | 0.85% | $2.41 | 16.19% |
| AZZ | AZZ Inc. | 0.84% | $0.92 | 8.89% |
| HIBB | Hibbett, Inc. | 0.84% | $0.74 | 9.00% |
| MAR | Marriott International, Inc. | 0.84% | $2.62 | 27.38% |
| MORN | Morningstar, Inc. | 0.84% | $1.77 | 20.03% |
| SGH | SMART Global Holdings, Inc. | 0.84% | $0.14 | 30.96% |
| URI | United Rentals, Inc. | 0.84% | $7.13 | 18.10% |
| 0HYJ.L | Cintas Corporation | 0.83% | $1.54 | 34.15% |
| EFX | Equifax Inc. | 0.83% | $1.78 | 33.46% |
| GM | General Motors Company | 0.82% | $0.66 | 21.22% |
| KVSA | Khosla Ventures Acquisition Co. | 0.81% | $0.09 | 9.61% |
| WMT | Walmart Inc. | 0.81% | $0.91 | 31.92% |
| BMI | Badger Meter, Inc. | 0.80% | $1.41 | 30.10% |
| FRD | Friedman Industries, Incorporated | 0.80% | $0.16 | 9.82% |
| ITT | ITT Inc. | 0.80% | $1.40 | 22.66% |
| MLI | Mueller Industries, Inc. | 0.80% | $0.94 | 13.89% |
| SSSSL | SuRo Capital Corp. 6.00% Notes due 2026 | 0.80% | $0.20 | 8.46% |
| RGLD | Royal Gold, Inc. | 0.79% | $1.75 | 24.00% |
| VRSK | Verisk Analytics, Inc. | 0.79% | $1.74 | 26.41% |
| COF | Capital One Financial Corporation | 0.78% | $1.94 | 87.57% |
| EE | Excelerate Energy, Inc. | 0.78% | $0.22 | 9.21% |
| 0K36.L | Moody's Corporation | 0.77% | $3.82 | 30.70% |
| HCI | HCI Group, Inc. | 0.77% | $1.42 | 9.00% |
| PH | Parker-Hannifin Corporation | 0.77% | $6.85 | 24.15% |
| SEI | Solaris Energy Infrastructure, Inc. | 0.77% | $0.39 | 44.96% |
| 0HQN.L | Cboe Global Markets, Inc. | 0.76% | $1.90 | 20.31% |
| ASIC | Ategrity Specialty Holdings LLC | 0.76% | $0.15 | 12.77% |
| GL | Globe Life Inc. | 0.75% | $1.03 | 7.35% |
| 0KYY.L | S&P Global Inc. | 0.74% | $3.81 | 28.09% |
| PHM | PulteGroup, Inc. | 0.74% | $0.89 | 6.67% |
| ROP | Roper Technologies, Inc. | 0.74% | $3.20 | 22.09% |
| ZWS | Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation | 0.74% | $0.35 | 30.63% |
| JOE | The St. Joe Company | 0.73% | $0.43 | 24.05% |
| TOL | Toll Brothers, Inc. | 0.73% | $0.99 | 7.16% |
| TTEK | Tetra Tech, Inc. | 0.73% | $0.25 | 26.25% |
| 0HCB.L | Alcoa Corporation | 0.72% | $0.40 | 9.08% |
| A | Agilent Technologies, Inc. | 0.72% | $0.99 | 21.64% |
| FCFS | FirstCash Holdings, Inc | 0.72% | $1.13 | 16.40% |
| TRAK | ReposiTrak, Inc. | 0.72% | $0.09 | 22.94% |
| BKNG | Booking Holdings Inc. | 0.71% | $37.78 | 24.39% |
| PGC | Peapack-Gladstone Financial Corporation | 0.71% | $0.20 | 10.22% |
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | 0.70% | $0.37 | 6.63% |
| BRO | Brown & Brown, Inc. | 0.70% | $0.54 | 18.02% |
| INTU | Intuit Inc. | 0.70% | $4.39 | 29.97% |
| MSFT | Microsoft Corporation | 0.70% | $3.31 | 23.52% |
| NCR | NCR Corporation | 0.70% | $0.11 | 1.70% |