DDM Analysis: EME

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$544.62 - $1,338.36	$812.91
Multi-Stage	$372.07 - $406.95	$389.19
Blended Fair Value	$601.05
Current Price	$649.54
Upside	-7.46%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	19.30%	7.38%	0.95	0.72	0.60	0.62	0.39	0.39	0.41	0.42	0.43	0.44
YoY Growth	-	-	32.74%	20.22%	-3.47%	59.35%	-1.54%	-3.70%	-1.74%	-2.48%	-3.19%	-5.63%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.26%	0.20%	0.37%	0.55%	0.35%	0.64%	0.55%	0.53%	0.68%	0.91%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,130.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	45.33
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,085.04

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	226.07	141.30	84.78
Cash Retained (M)	1,085.04	1,085.04	1,085.04
(-) Cash Required (M)	-226.07	-141.30	-84.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)	858.96	943.74	1,000.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	45.59	45.59	45.59
(=) Excess Retained per Share	18.84	20.70	21.94
LTM Dividend per Share	0.99	0.99	0.99
(+) Excess Retained per Share	18.84	20.70	21.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend	19.83	21.69	22.93
WACC / Discount Rate	9.34%	9.34%	9.34%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$544.62	$812.91	$1,338.36
Upside / Downside	-16.15%	25.15%	106.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,130.37	1,203.85	1,282.10	1,365.43	1,454.18	1,548.71	1,595.17
Payout Ratio	4.01%	21.21%	38.41%	55.60%	72.80%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	45.33	255.31	492.40	759.24	1,058.68	1,393.84	1,475.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.34%	9.34%	9.34%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	231.31	233.50	235.69
Year 2 PV (M)	404.16	411.86	419.63
Year 3 PV (M)	564.58	580.79	597.30
Year 4 PV (M)	713.22	740.65	768.87
Year 5 PV (M)	850.73	891.82	934.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)	14,200.41	14,886.29	15,598.43
Equity Value (M)	16,964.41	17,744.91	18,554.40
Shares Outstanding (M)	45.59	45.59	45.59
Fair Value	$372.07	$389.19	$406.95
Upside / Downside	-42.72%	-40.08%	-37.35%

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EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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