Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Dharma Satya Nusantara Tbk (DSNG.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5,508.97 - $29,998.06$10,722.46
Multi-Stage$3,102.75 - $3,395.07$3,246.23
Blended Fair Value$6,984.35
Current Price$1,650.00
Upside323.29%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.40%18.59%22.0030.0020.0012.334.939.879.874.934.9310.00
YoY Growth---26.67%50.00%62.16%150.00%-50.00%0.00%100.00%0.00%-50.66%150.00%
Dividend Yield--2.89%4.44%2.82%1.93%0.86%3.01%2.49%1.14%0.99%1.79%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,598,867.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)254,396.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,344,471.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)319,773.40199,858.38119,915.03
Cash Retained (M)1,344,471.001,344,471.001,344,471.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-319,773.40-199,858.38-119,915.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,024,697.601,144,612.631,224,555.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)10,599.8410,599.8410,599.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share96.67107.98115.53
LTM Dividend per Share24.0024.0024.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share96.67107.98115.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend120.67131.98139.53
WACC / Discount Rate7.81%7.81%7.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$5,508.97$10,722.46$29,998.06
Upside / Downside233.88%549.85%1,718.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,598,867.001,702,793.361,813,474.921,931,350.792,056,888.592,190,586.352,256,303.94
Payout Ratio15.91%30.73%45.55%60.36%75.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)254,396.00523,248.20825,976.351,165,848.451,546,414.171,971,527.722,087,081.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.81%7.81%7.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)480,781.60485,338.77489,895.95
Year 2 PV (M)697,345.20710,627.67724,035.44
Year 3 PV (M)904,403.85930,366.03956,820.38
Year 4 PV (M)1,102,265.521,144,655.541,188,256.61
Year 5 PV (M)1,291,229.351,353,596.211,418,350.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)28,412,648.5829,784,990.1331,209,854.42
Equity Value (M)32,888,674.1034,409,574.3535,987,212.79
Shares Outstanding (M)10,599.8410,599.8410,599.84
Fair Value$3,102.75$3,246.23$3,395.07
Upside / Downside88.05%96.74%105.76%

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