Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Deutsche Post AG (DHL.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$152.29 - $605.56$412.84
Multi-Stage$88.01 - $96.30$92.08
Blended Fair Value$252.46
Current Price$37.94
Upside565.41%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.86%8.40%1.881.911.911.451.231.231.221.100.890.89
YoY Growth---1.63%0.00%31.80%17.65%0.21%0.71%10.94%23.66%-0.29%6.40%
Dividend Yield--4.76%4.87%4.43%3.33%2.64%4.96%4.14%3.10%2.77%3.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,538.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,123.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,415.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)707.60442.25265.35
Cash Retained (M)1,415.001,415.001,415.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-707.60-442.25-265.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)707.40972.751,149.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,154.691,154.691,154.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.610.841.00
LTM Dividend per Share1.841.841.84
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.610.841.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.452.682.83
WACC / Discount Rate6.52%6.52%6.52%
Growth Rate4.83%5.83%6.83%
Fair Value$152.29$412.84$605.56
Upside / Downside301.41%988.13%1,496.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,538.003,744.243,962.514,193.504,437.954,696.664,837.56
Payout Ratio60.01%66.00%72.00%78.00%84.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,123.002,471.372,853.143,271.023,727.934,226.994,474.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.52%6.52%6.52%
Growth Rate4.83%5.83%6.83%
Year 1 PV (M)2,298.252,320.172,342.10
Year 2 PV (M)2,467.412,514.712,562.46
Year 3 PV (M)2,630.642,706.642,784.10
Year 4 PV (M)2,788.082,896.003,007.02
Year 5 PV (M)2,939.873,082.793,231.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)88,498.2492,800.6097,268.69
Equity Value (M)101,622.49106,320.92111,195.58
Shares Outstanding (M)1,154.691,154.691,154.69
Fair Value$88.01$92.08$96.30
Upside / Downside131.97%142.69%153.82%

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