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D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Residential ConstructionSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$262.27 - $663.29$395.10
Multi-Stage$179.79 - $196.53$188.01
Blended Fair Value$291.55
Current Price$169.47
Upside72.04%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS14.09%18.37%1.611.281.111.030.940.830.730.610.490.39
YoY Growth--25.20%15.83%7.80%9.40%13.01%14.59%18.58%25.94%26.03%29.59%
Dividend Yield--0.95%0.92%0.73%1.15%0.87%1.21%1.37%1.76%0.95%1.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,585.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)494.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,090.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)717.04448.15268.89
Cash Retained (M)3,090.403,090.403,090.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-717.04-448.15-268.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,373.362,642.252,821.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)308.13308.13308.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share7.708.589.16
LTM Dividend per Share1.611.611.61
(+) Excess Retained per Share7.708.589.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.3110.1810.76
WACC / Discount Rate9.24%9.24%9.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$262.27$395.10$663.29
Upside / Downside54.76%133.14%291.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,585.203,818.244,066.424,330.744,612.244,912.035,059.40
Payout Ratio13.80%29.04%44.28%59.52%74.76%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)494.801,108.851,800.642,577.683,448.124,420.834,679.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.24%9.24%9.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,005.491,015.021,024.55
Year 2 PV (M)1,480.591,508.791,537.26
Year 3 PV (M)1,921.941,977.122,033.33
Year 4 PV (M)2,331.302,420.962,513.17
Year 5 PV (M)2,710.342,841.252,977.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)45,948.8648,168.2150,472.50
Equity Value (M)55,398.5357,931.3460,557.98
Shares Outstanding (M)308.13308.13308.13
Fair Value$179.79$188.01$196.53
Upside / Downside6.09%10.94%15.97%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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