Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Cyrela Brazil Realty S.A. Empreendimentos e Participações (CYRE3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Residential ConstructionSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$66.47 - $117.09$87.96
Multi-Stage$95.43 - $104.84$100.04
Blended Fair Value$94.00
Current Price$30.70
Upside206.19%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-22.47%2.75%0.610.860.070.551.642.181.170.100.290.43
YoY Growth---29.45%1,166.78%-87.54%-66.52%-24.88%85.76%1,096.24%-66.30%-32.06%-8.01%
Dividend Yield--2.55%3.53%0.48%3.10%6.52%14.94%6.90%0.59%2.03%3.74%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,821.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)223.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,597.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)364.24227.65136.59
Cash Retained (M)1,597.441,597.441,597.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-364.24-227.65-136.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,233.201,369.791,460.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)366.77366.77366.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.363.733.98
LTM Dividend per Share0.610.610.61
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.363.733.98
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.974.344.59
WACC / Discount Rate7.24%7.24%7.24%
Growth Rate1.19%2.19%3.19%
Fair Value$66.47$87.96$117.09
Upside / Downside116.50%186.51%281.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,821.191,861.101,901.901,943.581,986.192,029.722,090.61
Payout Ratio12.29%27.83%43.37%58.91%74.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)223.75517.92824.881,145.051,478.861,826.751,933.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.24%7.24%7.24%
Growth Rate1.19%2.19%3.19%
Year 1 PV (M)478.23482.95487.68
Year 2 PV (M)703.30717.26731.37
Year 3 PV (M)901.46928.45955.97
Year 4 PV (M)1,075.031,118.161,162.57
Year 5 PV (M)1,226.161,287.951,352.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)30,615.6032,158.5533,763.08
Equity Value (M)34,999.7736,693.3238,452.89
Shares Outstanding (M)366.77366.77366.77
Fair Value$95.43$100.04$104.84
Upside / Downside210.84%225.88%241.50%

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