DDM Analysis: BKL.AX

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$13.51 - $19.14	$16.29
Multi-Stage	$25.65 - $28.22	$26.91
Blended Fair Value	$21.60
Current Price	$70.40
Upside	-69.32%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013
DPS	-21.26%	-1.59%	0.99	0.23	0.55	2.22	2.78	3.26	3.21	1.26	1.01	0.87
YoY Growth	-	-	325.03%	-57.94%	-75.16%	-20.08%	-14.70%	1.50%	154.17%	25.52%	15.05%	-24.45%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.40%	0.32%	0.71%	2.47%	1.95%	3.40%	2.44%	1.68%	3.70%	3.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	37.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	14.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)	23.59

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	7.54	4.71	2.83
Cash Retained (M)	23.59	23.59	23.59
(-) Cash Required (M)	-7.54	-4.71	-2.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)	16.05	18.88	20.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	17.97	17.97	17.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.89	1.05	1.16
LTM Dividend per Share	0.78	0.78	0.78
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.89	1.05	1.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.68	1.83	1.94
WACC / Discount Rate	8.38%	8.38%	8.38%
Growth Rate	-3.59%	-2.59%	-1.59%
Fair Value	$13.51	$16.29	$19.14
Upside / Downside	-80.81%	-76.86%	-72.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	37.68	36.70	35.75	34.83	33.92	33.05	34.04
Payout Ratio	37.39%	47.91%	58.43%	68.96%	79.48%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	14.09	17.58	20.89	24.01	26.96	29.74	31.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.38%	8.38%	8.38%
Growth Rate	-3.59%	-2.59%	-1.59%
Year 1 PV (M)	16.06	16.23	16.39
Year 2 PV (M)	17.42	17.79	18.15
Year 3 PV (M)	18.29	18.86	19.45
Year 4 PV (M)	18.75	19.54	20.36
Year 5 PV (M)	18.89	19.89	20.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)	371.60	391.27	411.77
Equity Value (M)	461.01	483.58	507.05
Shares Outstanding (M)	17.97	17.97	17.97
Fair Value	$25.65	$26.91	$28.22
Upside / Downside	-63.56%	-61.78%	-59.92%

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Blackmores Limited (BKL.AX)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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