Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Bangkok Commercial Asset Management Public Company Limited (BAM-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.59 - $3.43$3.03
Multi-Stage$7.50 - $8.31$7.90
Blended Fair Value$5.46
Current Price$7.10
Upside-23.05%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-40.25%-11.27%0.380.550.550.511.054.971.361.221.181.16
YoY Growth---30.91%0.00%7.31%-51.19%-78.95%266.35%11.08%3.10%2.29%-7.49%
Dividend Yield--6.36%5.43%4.03%2.48%4.82%24.85%7.75%6.98%6.77%6.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,232.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,131.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,101.69
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)446.58279.11167.47
Cash Retained (M)1,101.691,101.691,101.69
(-) Cash Required (M)-446.58-279.11-167.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)655.11822.58934.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,244.023,244.023,244.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.250.29
LTM Dividend per Share0.350.350.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.250.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.550.600.64
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate-11.63%-10.63%-9.63%
Fair Value$2.59$3.03$3.43
Upside / Downside-63.46%-57.31%-51.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,232.881,995.481,783.331,593.731,424.291,272.871,311.05
Payout Ratio50.66%58.53%66.40%74.26%82.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,131.191,167.931,184.071,183.581,169.801,145.581,212.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate-11.63%-10.63%-9.63%
Year 1 PV (M)1,078.031,090.231,102.43
Year 2 PV (M)1,008.801,031.761,054.98
Year 3 PV (M)930.76962.72995.40
Year 4 PV (M)849.12888.22928.64
Year 5 PV (M)767.53811.96858.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,688.2420,827.7322,019.38
Equity Value (M)24,322.4925,612.6126,959.24
Shares Outstanding (M)3,244.023,244.023,244.02
Fair Value$7.50$7.90$8.31
Upside / Downside5.60%11.20%17.05%

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