Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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PT Bank Amar Indonesia Tbk (AMAR.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$705.20 - $2,544.79$2,243.75
Multi-Stage$331.97 - $362.68$347.04
Blended Fair Value$1,295.39
Current Price$158.00
Upside719.87%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%6.960.000.000.001.670.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.05%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.89%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)235,203.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)168,431.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)66,772.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)47,040.6029,400.3817,640.23
Cash Retained (M)66,772.0066,772.0066,772.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-47,040.60-29,400.38-17,640.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)19,731.4037,371.6349,131.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)18,381.0518,381.0518,381.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.072.032.67
LTM Dividend per Share9.169.169.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.072.032.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend10.2411.2011.84
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$705.20$2,243.75$2,544.79
Upside / Downside346.33%1,320.09%1,510.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)235,203.00250,491.20266,773.12284,113.38302,580.75322,248.49331,915.95
Payout Ratio71.61%75.29%78.97%82.64%86.32%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)168,431.00188,591.63210,661.51234,803.69261,194.30290,023.64307,022.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)174,547.60176,202.08177,856.56
Year 2 PV (M)180,454.68183,891.83187,361.41
Year 3 PV (M)186,156.98191,500.88196,946.08
Year 4 PV (M)191,659.16199,029.83206,611.08
Year 5 PV (M)196,965.77206,479.29216,356.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,172,097.425,421,911.665,681,286.88
Equity Value (M)6,101,881.616,379,015.576,666,418.92
Shares Outstanding (M)18,381.0518,381.0518,381.05
Fair Value$331.97$347.04$362.68
Upside / Downside110.11%119.65%129.54%

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