Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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PJSC Abrau-Durso (ABRD.ME)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,390.51 - $4,265.55$3,997.44
Multi-Stage$676.72 - $740.92$708.23
Blended Fair Value$2,352.84
Current Price$180.60
Upside1,202.79%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.02%15.94%3.095.993.232.800.972.792.811.270.400.00
YoY Growth---48.42%85.56%15.05%190.09%-65.41%-0.56%121.71%214.63%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%2.27%1.70%1.45%0.48%2.01%1.98%0.87%0.40%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,139.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)757.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,381.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)427.86267.41160.45
Cash Retained (M)1,381.341,381.341,381.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-427.86-267.41-160.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)953.481,113.921,220.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)99.7499.7499.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share9.5611.1712.24
LTM Dividend per Share7.607.607.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share9.5611.1712.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend17.1618.7719.84
WACC / Discount Rate6.26%6.26%6.26%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$2,390.51$3,997.44$4,265.55
Upside / Downside1,223.65%2,113.42%2,261.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,139.312,278.362,426.462,584.182,752.152,931.043,018.97
Payout Ratio35.43%46.34%57.26%68.17%79.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)757.971,055.901,389.351,761.692,176.572,637.932,792.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.26%6.26%6.26%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)984.39993.721,003.05
Year 2 PV (M)1,207.541,230.541,253.75
Year 3 PV (M)1,427.461,468.431,510.19
Year 4 PV (M)1,644.181,707.411,772.45
Year 5 PV (M)1,857.741,947.472,040.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)60,376.6463,292.8666,320.68
Equity Value (M)67,497.9570,640.4373,900.76
Shares Outstanding (M)99.7499.7499.74
Fair Value$676.72$708.23$740.92
Upside / Downside274.71%292.15%310.25%

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