Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Novoray Corporation (688300.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$56.23 - $266.87$123.31
Multi-Stage$29.99 - $32.80$31.37
Blended Fair Value$77.34
Current Price$62.10
Upside24.54%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS41.08%29.79%0.440.270.240.200.200.080.070.070.020.03
YoY Growth--66.20%9.35%21.60%-0.20%153.41%16.18%3.94%179.59%-10.70%-19.53%
Dividend Yield--1.00%0.80%0.70%0.67%1.11%0.49%0.44%0.42%0.15%0.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)286.52
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)93.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)193.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)57.3035.8221.49
Cash Retained (M)193.38193.38193.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-57.30-35.82-21.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)136.07157.56171.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)213.52213.52213.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.640.740.81
LTM Dividend per Share0.440.440.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.640.740.81
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.071.171.24
WACC / Discount Rate7.51%7.51%7.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$56.23$123.31$266.87
Upside / Downside-9.45%98.56%329.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)286.52305.15324.98346.11368.60392.56404.34
Payout Ratio32.51%44.01%55.51%67.00%78.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)93.14134.29180.38231.90289.36353.31374.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.51%7.51%7.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)123.73124.90126.07
Year 2 PV (M)153.13156.05158.99
Year 3 PV (M)181.39186.60191.90
Year 4 PV (M)208.54216.56224.81
Year 5 PV (M)234.61245.94257.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,501.775,767.516,043.41
Equity Value (M)6,403.166,697.557,002.90
Shares Outstanding (M)213.52213.52213.52
Fair Value$29.99$31.37$32.80
Upside / Downside-51.71%-49.49%-47.19%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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