DDM Analysis: 6530.TWO

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$22.80 - $38.67	$29.72
Multi-Stage	$40.32 - $44.21	$42.23
Blended Fair Value	$35.97
Current Price	$60.00
Upside	-40.05%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	3.71%	0.00%	1.19	1.49	1.09	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.88	0.88	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-20.00%	36.36%	10.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	12.50%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.33%	2.80%	4.12%	4.74%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	63.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	52.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)	11.08

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	12.68	7.92	4.75
Cash Retained (M)	11.08	11.08	11.08
(-) Cash Required (M)	-12.68	-7.92	-4.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-1.60	3.16	6.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	33.98	33.98	33.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.05	0.09	0.19
LTM Dividend per Share	1.54	1.54	1.54
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.05	0.09	0.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.49	1.63	1.73
WACC / Discount Rate	6.85%	6.85%	6.85%
Growth Rate	0.29%	1.29%	2.29%
Fair Value	$22.80	$29.72	$38.67
Upside / Downside	-62.00%	-50.47%	-35.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	63.40	64.21	65.04	65.88	66.73	67.59	69.61
Payout Ratio	82.52%	84.02%	85.51%	87.01%	88.50%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	52.31	53.95	55.62	57.32	59.06	60.83	64.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.85%	6.85%	6.85%
Growth Rate	0.29%	1.29%	2.29%
Year 1 PV (M)	49.99	50.49	50.99
Year 2 PV (M)	47.75	48.71	49.68
Year 3 PV (M)	45.60	46.98	48.39
Year 4 PV (M)	43.54	45.30	47.12
Year 5 PV (M)	41.56	43.67	45.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,141.79	1,199.86	1,260.27
Equity Value (M)	1,370.23	1,435.01	1,502.31
Shares Outstanding (M)	33.98	33.98	33.98
Fair Value	$40.32	$42.23	$44.21
Upside / Downside	-32.80%	-29.62%	-26.32%

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HCI	HCI Group, Inc.	0.77%	$1.42	9.00%
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Financial Statements

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Axcen Photonics Corporation (6530.TWO)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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