DDM Analysis: 603938.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$3.80 - $8.07	$5.40
Multi-Stage	$2.74 - $3.00	$2.87
Blended Fair Value	$4.13
Current Price	$14.33
Upside	-71.15%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	4.38%	53.06%	0.08	0.24	0.13	0.05	0.06	0.06	0.08	0.07	0.15	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-66.94%	83.79%	154.23%	-15.17%	-5.47%	-20.00%	6.68%	-50.00%	0.00%	-100.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.60%	1.66%	0.54%	0.19%	0.56%	0.70%	0.80%	0.54%	2.70%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	77.38
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	7.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)	70.17

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	15.48	9.67	5.80
Cash Retained (M)	70.17	70.17	70.17
(-) Cash Required (M)	-15.48	-9.67	-5.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)	54.69	60.50	64.37
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	382.36	382.36	382.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.14	0.16	0.17
LTM Dividend per Share	0.02	0.02	0.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.14	0.16	0.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.16	0.18	0.19
WACC / Discount Rate	9.99%	9.99%	9.99%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$3.80	$5.40	$8.07
Upside / Downside	-73.47%	-62.32%	-43.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	77.38	82.41	87.77	93.47	99.55	106.02	109.20
Payout Ratio	9.32%	25.46%	41.59%	57.73%	73.86%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	7.21	20.98	36.51	53.96	73.53	95.42	101.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.99%	9.99%	9.99%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	18.90	19.07	19.25
Year 2 PV (M)	29.61	30.17	30.74
Year 3 PV (M)	39.42	40.55	41.70
Year 4 PV (M)	48.38	50.24	52.15
Year 5 PV (M)	56.54	59.27	62.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)	855.91	897.25	940.17
Equity Value (M)	1,048.74	1,096.55	1,146.12
Shares Outstanding (M)	382.36	382.36	382.36
Fair Value	$2.74	$2.87	$3.00
Upside / Downside	-80.86%	-79.99%	-79.08%

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Tangshan Sunfar Silicon Industries Co.,Ltd. (603938.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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