Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Chengdu Haoneng Technology Co., Ltd. (603809.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$66.95 - $78.88$73.92
Multi-Stage$52.92 - $58.07$55.44
Blended Fair Value$64.68
Current Price$16.63
Upside288.95%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.83%12.70%0.160.150.200.110.070.100.140.010.000.00
YoY Growth--7.14%-27.19%78.43%54.84%-29.18%-24.89%1,795.08%283.01%1,017.20%-99.64%
Dividend Yield--1.26%2.77%3.29%1.77%1.28%3.28%3.80%0.16%0.04%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)344.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)167.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)176.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)68.8043.0025.80
Cash Retained (M)176.27176.27176.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-68.80-43.00-25.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)107.47133.27150.47
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)867.34867.34867.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.150.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.150.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.320.350.37
WACC / Discount Rate-0.69%-0.69%-0.69%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$66.95$73.92$78.88
Upside / Downside302.58%344.50%374.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)344.00366.36390.18415.54442.55471.31485.45
Payout Ratio48.76%57.01%65.26%73.50%81.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)167.73208.85254.61305.44361.79424.18449.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-0.69%-0.69%-0.69%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)208.34210.31212.29
Year 2 PV (M)253.36258.19263.06
Year 3 PV (M)303.19311.89320.76
Year 4 PV (M)358.24372.02386.19
Year 5 PV (M)418.99439.23460.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)44,354.8746,497.2348,721.58
Equity Value (M)45,896.9948,088.8750,364.12
Shares Outstanding (M)867.34867.34867.34
Fair Value$52.92$55.44$58.07
Upside / Downside218.20%233.40%249.17%

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