DDM Analysis: 603538.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$9.14 - $21.33	$13.41
Multi-Stage	$18.30 - $20.13	$19.20
Blended Fair Value	$16.31
Current Price	$21.75
Upside	-25.03%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-14.86%	8.51%	0.10	0.27	0.23	0.06	0.19	0.23	0.18	0.02	0.01	0.01
YoY Growth	-	-	-61.66%	18.42%	261.65%	-66.67%	-18.27%	29.98%	795.57%	64.72%	44.49%	-81.74%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.73%	1.90%	0.90%	0.12%	0.87%	1.10%	1.24%	0.15%	0.10%	0.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	99.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	33.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)	65.51

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	19.90	12.44	7.46
Cash Retained (M)	65.51	65.51	65.51
(-) Cash Required (M)	-19.90	-12.44	-7.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)	45.62	53.08	58.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	217.81	217.81	217.81
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.21	0.24	0.27
LTM Dividend per Share	0.16	0.16	0.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.21	0.24	0.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.37	0.40	0.42
WACC / Discount Rate	5.11%	5.11%	5.11%
Growth Rate	1.07%	2.07%	3.07%
Fair Value	$9.14	$13.41	$21.33
Upside / Downside	-57.98%	-38.33%	-1.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	99.48	101.54	103.64	105.79	107.98	110.21	113.52
Payout Ratio	34.15%	45.32%	56.49%	67.66%	78.83%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	33.97	46.01	58.55	71.57	85.12	99.19	105.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	5.11%	5.11%	5.11%
Growth Rate	1.07%	2.07%	3.07%
Year 1 PV (M)	43.35	43.78	44.21
Year 2 PV (M)	51.96	52.99	54.03
Year 3 PV (M)	59.84	61.63	63.46
Year 4 PV (M)	67.04	69.73	72.50
Year 5 PV (M)	73.60	77.31	81.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)	3,689.68	3,875.85	4,069.47
Equity Value (M)	3,985.45	4,181.29	4,384.85
Shares Outstanding (M)	217.81	217.81	217.81
Fair Value	$18.30	$19.20	$20.13
Upside / Downside	-15.87%	-11.74%	-7.44%

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Ningbo Menovo Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (603538.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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