DDM Analysis: 603037.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$35.13 - $85.92	$80.52
Multi-Stage	$12.87 - $14.07	$13.46
Blended Fair Value	$46.99
Current Price	$13.89
Upside	238.30%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-2.51%	12.78%	0.35	0.31	0.31	0.31	0.29	0.39	0.37	0.28	0.27	0.09
YoY Growth	-	-	11.32%	0.05%	-0.38%	9.18%	-27.31%	7.07%	32.37%	3.70%	200.00%	-14.29%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.91%	2.08%	4.23%	4.55%	4.54%	6.50%	4.28%	2.84%	1.64%	1.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	87.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	68.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)	18.58

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	17.45	10.91	6.54
Cash Retained (M)	18.58	18.58	18.58
(-) Cash Required (M)	-17.45	-10.91	-6.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1.13	7.68	12.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	201.94	201.94	201.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.01	0.04	0.06
LTM Dividend per Share	0.34	0.34	0.34
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.01	0.04	0.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.35	0.38	0.40
WACC / Discount Rate	6.54%	6.54%	6.54%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$35.13	$80.52	$85.92
Upside / Downside	152.95%	479.70%	518.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	87.25	92.92	98.96	105.39	112.24	119.54	123.12
Payout Ratio	78.70%	80.96%	83.22%	85.48%	87.74%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	68.66	75.23	82.35	90.09	98.48	107.58	113.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.54%	6.54%	6.54%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	69.95	70.61	71.27
Year 2 PV (M)	71.20	72.56	73.92
Year 3 PV (M)	72.42	74.50	76.62
Year 4 PV (M)	73.61	76.44	79.35
Year 5 PV (M)	74.77	78.38	82.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,237.35	2,345.41	2,457.61
Equity Value (M)	2,599.30	2,717.90	2,840.91
Shares Outstanding (M)	201.94	201.94	201.94
Fair Value	$12.87	$13.46	$14.07
Upside / Downside	-7.33%	-3.11%	1.28%

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Shanghai Carthane Co.,Ltd. (603037.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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