DDM Analysis: 601918.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$42.47 - $155.77	$131.23
Multi-Stage	$24.09 - $26.41	$25.23
Blended Fair Value	$78.23
Current Price	$6.23
Upside	1,155.68%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-1.23%	0.58%	0.33	0.29	0.28	0.30	0.35	0.35	0.36	0.38	0.39	0.34
YoY Growth	-	-	15.14%	5.19%	-9.43%	-12.42%	-2.14%	-2.37%	-4.30%	-3.05%	13.52%	9.55%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.87%	3.38%	6.67%	5.20%	10.81%	13.04%	10.26%	11.86%	7.80%	5.51%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	2,045.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	383.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,661.31

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	409.04	255.65	153.39
Cash Retained (M)	1,661.31	1,661.31	1,661.31
(-) Cash Required (M)	-409.04	-255.65	-153.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,252.27	1,405.66	1,507.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,590.54	2,590.54	2,590.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.48	0.54	0.58
LTM Dividend per Share	0.15	0.15	0.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.48	0.54	0.58
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.63	0.69	0.73
WACC / Discount Rate	6.21%	6.21%	6.21%
Growth Rate	4.65%	5.65%	6.65%
Fair Value	$42.47	$131.23	$155.77
Upside / Downside	581.77%	2,006.42%	2,400.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	2,045.20	2,160.78	2,282.89	2,411.91	2,548.21	2,692.22	2,772.99
Payout Ratio	18.77%	33.02%	47.26%	61.51%	75.75%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	383.88	713.40	1,078.94	1,483.52	1,930.37	2,423.00	2,565.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.21%	6.21%	6.21%
Growth Rate	4.65%	5.65%	6.65%
Year 1 PV (M)	665.35	671.71	678.06
Year 2 PV (M)	938.48	956.50	974.70
Year 3 PV (M)	1,203.47	1,238.30	1,273.80
Year 4 PV (M)	1,460.49	1,517.12	1,575.38
Year 5 PV (M)	1,709.72	1,792.98	1,879.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)	56,427.41	59,175.40	62,029.42
Equity Value (M)	62,404.92	65,352.01	68,410.81
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,590.54	2,590.54	2,590.54
Fair Value	$24.09	$25.23	$26.41
Upside / Downside	286.67%	304.93%	323.88%

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China Coal Xinji Energy Co.,Ltd (601918.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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