DDM Analysis: 601888.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$31.76 - $69.04	$45.48
Multi-Stage	$24.32 - $26.50	$25.39
Blended Fair Value	$35.44
Current Price	$71.57
Upside	-50.49%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	26.64%	24.51%	1.69	0.80	1.42	0.94	0.68	0.52	0.49	0.47	0.24	0.22
YoY Growth	-	-	111.32%	-43.49%	50.00%	38.89%	30.91%	5.77%	4.00%	100.00%	8.69%	15.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.81%	0.91%	0.77%	0.57%	0.22%	0.77%	0.70%	0.89%	0.83%	0.95%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	3,399.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	2,107.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,292.38

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	679.96	424.97	254.98
Cash Retained (M)	1,292.38	1,292.38	1,292.38
(-) Cash Required (M)	-679.96	-424.97	-254.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)	612.42	867.40	1,037.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,068.86	2,068.86	2,068.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.30	0.42	0.50
LTM Dividend per Share	1.02	1.02	1.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.30	0.42	0.50
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.31	1.44	1.52
WACC / Discount Rate	9.87%	9.87%	9.87%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$31.76	$45.48	$69.04
Upside / Downside	-55.62%	-36.45%	-3.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	3,399.78	3,620.76	3,856.11	4,106.76	4,373.70	4,657.99	4,797.73
Payout Ratio	61.99%	67.59%	73.19%	78.79%	84.40%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	2,107.40	2,447.24	2,822.36	3,235.90	3,691.28	4,192.19	4,437.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.87%	9.87%	9.87%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	2,206.55	2,227.46	2,248.38
Year 2 PV (M)	2,294.48	2,338.18	2,382.30
Year 3 PV (M)	2,371.94	2,440.03	2,509.41
Year 4 PV (M)	2,439.62	2,533.44	2,629.94
Year 5 PV (M)	2,498.17	2,618.83	2,744.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)	38,512.34	40,372.50	42,303.86
Equity Value (M)	50,323.09	52,530.45	54,817.99
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,068.86	2,068.86	2,068.86
Fair Value	$24.32	$25.39	$26.50
Upside / Downside	-66.01%	-64.52%	-62.98%

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China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (601888.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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