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Definitive Analysis

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Everbright Securities Company Limited (601788.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$121.69 - $151.58$142.04
Multi-Stage$39.26 - $43.08$41.14
Blended Fair Value$91.59
Current Price$18.82
Upside386.64%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.36%46.30%0.740.630.690.650.640.830.860.610.950.19
YoY Growth--17.88%-8.99%6.07%1.33%-23.04%-2.43%39.55%-35.72%403.62%1,048.50%
Dividend Yield--4.34%3.80%4.53%5.22%3.95%7.58%6.45%4.98%6.22%0.99%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,746.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,254.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,491.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)749.21468.26280.95
Cash Retained (M)2,491.762,491.762,491.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-749.21-468.26-280.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,742.552,023.502,210.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,865.584,865.584,865.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.360.420.45
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.360.420.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.620.670.71
WACC / Discount Rate4.95%4.95%4.95%
Growth Rate4.42%5.42%6.42%
Fair Value$121.69$142.04$151.58
Upside / Downside546.59%654.71%705.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,746.073,949.104,163.134,388.774,626.634,877.395,023.71
Payout Ratio33.48%44.79%56.09%67.39%78.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,254.301,768.672,335.102,957.733,641.004,389.654,646.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.95%4.95%4.95%
Growth Rate4.42%5.42%6.42%
Year 1 PV (M)1,669.291,685.271,701.26
Year 2 PV (M)2,080.062,120.092,160.50
Year 3 PV (M)2,486.652,558.782,632.28
Year 4 PV (M)2,889.093,001.363,116.87
Year 5 PV (M)3,287.423,447.873,614.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)178,616.68187,334.89196,390.24
Equity Value (M)191,029.18200,148.26209,615.70
Shares Outstanding (M)4,865.584,865.584,865.58
Fair Value$39.26$41.14$43.08
Upside / Downside108.61%118.57%128.91%

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