Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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BOC International (China) Co. Ltd. (601696.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.14 - $2.97$2.56
Multi-Stage$7.41 - $8.21$7.80
Blended Fair Value$5.18
Current Price$14.36
Upside-63.93%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-11.64%-7.19%0.130.090.140.220.180.250.280.270.490.13
YoY Growth--41.69%-33.87%-35.84%25.13%-28.40%-10.91%2.16%-44.78%286.88%-54.72%
Dividend Yield--1.27%0.92%1.32%1.65%1.00%1.16%3.52%3.45%6.24%1.61%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,099.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)210.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)888.88
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)219.97137.4882.49
Cash Retained (M)888.88888.88888.88
(-) Cash Required (M)-219.97-137.48-82.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)668.91751.40806.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,787.082,787.082,787.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.240.270.29
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.240.270.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.320.350.37
WACC / Discount Rate5.85%5.85%5.85%
Growth Rate-7.74%-6.74%-5.74%
Fair Value$2.14$2.56$2.97
Upside / Downside-85.07%-82.18%-79.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,099.871,025.77956.66892.20832.09776.03799.31
Payout Ratio19.18%33.35%47.51%61.67%75.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)210.99342.06454.51550.25631.03698.43739.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.85%5.85%5.85%
Growth Rate-7.74%-6.74%-5.74%
Year 1 PV (M)319.69323.15326.62
Year 2 PV (M)397.00405.65414.40
Year 3 PV (M)449.19463.96479.04
Year 4 PV (M)481.44502.66524.57
Year 5 PV (M)498.01525.59554.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,493.0619,517.2220,586.26
Equity Value (M)20,638.3921,738.2322,885.26
Shares Outstanding (M)2,787.082,787.082,787.08
Fair Value$7.41$7.80$8.21
Upside / Downside-48.43%-45.68%-42.82%

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