Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Western Mining Co.,Ltd. (601168.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$65.28 - $262.44$174.13
Multi-Stage$33.25 - $36.29$34.74
Blended Fair Value$104.43
Current Price$22.00
Upside374.69%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.37%11.47%0.781.680.200.120.100.430.410.270.300.27
YoY Growth---53.65%738.92%66.67%20.00%-76.96%5.19%52.77%-11.43%11.77%3.92%
Dividend Yield--4.57%8.79%1.58%0.87%0.80%7.65%6.01%3.98%3.54%4.57%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,144.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,827.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)316.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)628.93393.08235.85
Cash Retained (M)316.89316.89316.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-628.93-393.08-235.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)-312.04-76.2081.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,383.002,383.002,383.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.13-0.030.03
LTM Dividend per Share1.191.191.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.13-0.030.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.061.151.22
WACC / Discount Rate7.21%7.21%7.21%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$65.28$174.13$262.44
Upside / Downside196.71%691.48%1,092.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,144.653,349.053,566.743,798.584,045.494,308.444,437.70
Payout Ratio89.92%89.94%89.95%89.97%89.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,827.763,012.083,208.423,417.553,640.313,877.604,104.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.21%7.21%7.21%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,783.242,809.622,836.00
Year 2 PV (M)2,739.412,791.592,844.26
Year 3 PV (M)2,696.272,773.672,852.54
Year 4 PV (M)2,653.812,755.872,860.84
Year 5 PV (M)2,612.022,738.182,869.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)65,738.7168,913.9272,210.64
Equity Value (M)79,223.4682,782.8586,473.46
Shares Outstanding (M)2,383.002,383.002,383.00
Fair Value$33.25$34.74$36.29
Upside / Downside51.11%57.90%64.94%

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