Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical., Ltd (600436.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$677.57 - $798.30$748.12
Multi-Stage$141.70 - $155.22$148.33
Blended Fair Value$448.23
Current Price$196.79
Upside127.77%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS40.21%27.08%3.531.301.260.940.870.650.470.330.280.27
YoY Growth--171.11%3.16%33.63%8.97%33.04%38.13%44.20%18.38%3.60%-16.97%
Dividend Yield--1.74%0.56%0.44%0.30%0.30%0.52%0.40%0.39%0.55%0.73%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,419.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)716.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,702.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)483.93302.46181.47
Cash Retained (M)1,702.961,702.961,702.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-483.93-302.46-181.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,219.021,400.501,521.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)602.80602.80602.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.022.322.52
LTM Dividend per Share1.191.191.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.022.322.52
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.213.513.71
WACC / Discount Rate5.91%5.91%5.91%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$677.57$748.12$798.30
Upside / Downside244.31%280.16%305.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,419.672,576.942,744.452,922.833,112.823,315.153,414.61
Payout Ratio29.62%41.70%53.77%65.85%77.92%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)716.711,074.481,475.741,924.632,425.632,983.643,158.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.91%5.91%5.91%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,004.951,014.481,024.01
Year 2 PV (M)1,290.931,315.521,340.34
Year 3 PV (M)1,574.661,619.861,665.92
Year 4 PV (M)1,856.141,927.522,000.94
Year 5 PV (M)2,135.392,238.532,345.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)77,554.0181,299.9085,189.15
Equity Value (M)85,416.0889,415.8193,565.98
Shares Outstanding (M)602.80602.80602.80
Fair Value$141.70$148.33$155.22
Upside / Downside-27.99%-24.62%-21.12%

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