Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Grinm Advanced Materials Co., Ltd. (600206.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.89 - $21.46$12.15
Multi-Stage$5.47 - $5.97$5.72
Blended Fair Value$8.94
Current Price$22.54
Upside-60.36%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS84.66%26.91%0.180.160.120.140.020.010.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--10.47%39.47%-14.65%794.19%82.63%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--1.09%1.43%0.78%0.87%0.13%0.07%0.00%0.00%0.01%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)278.47
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)119.53
(=) Cash Retained (M)158.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)55.6934.8120.89
Cash Retained (M)158.94158.94158.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-55.69-34.81-20.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)103.25124.13138.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)844.99844.99844.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.150.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.150.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.290.30
WACC / Discount Rate9.03%9.03%9.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$7.89$12.15$21.46
Upside / Downside-65.02%-46.09%-4.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)278.47296.57315.85336.38358.24381.53392.97
Payout Ratio42.92%52.34%61.75%71.17%80.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)119.53155.22195.05239.40288.69343.37363.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.03%9.03%9.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)141.03142.37143.70
Year 2 PV (M)161.02164.09167.18
Year 3 PV (M)179.56184.72189.97
Year 4 PV (M)196.74204.31212.09
Year 5 PV (M)212.62222.89233.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,734.383,914.764,102.03
Equity Value (M)4,625.364,833.135,048.53
Shares Outstanding (M)844.99844.99844.99
Fair Value$5.47$5.72$5.97
Upside / Downside-75.71%-74.62%-73.49%

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