Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc. (600025.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Renewable UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.00 - $10.46$7.91
Multi-Stage$11.00 - $12.07$11.53
Blended Fair Value$9.72
Current Price$9.45
Upside2.84%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.05%-1.36%0.380.380.420.380.380.400.340.270.360.48
YoY Growth--0.71%-9.06%10.34%-1.14%-5.03%19.82%22.49%-24.49%-23.91%9.03%
Dividend Yield--4.16%4.01%5.89%6.49%6.59%11.05%7.90%7.23%11.63%15.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,610.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,539.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,070.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,722.151,076.34645.81
Cash Retained (M)2,070.862,070.862,070.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,722.15-1,076.34-645.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)348.71994.511,425.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)18,584.6918,584.6918,584.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.050.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.350.350.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.050.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.370.410.43
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate0.30%1.30%2.30%
Fair Value$6.00$7.91$10.46
Upside / Downside-36.47%-16.30%10.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,610.748,722.608,835.928,950.719,067.009,184.799,460.33
Payout Ratio75.95%78.76%81.57%84.38%87.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,539.886,869.947,207.487,552.627,905.528,266.318,750.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate0.30%1.30%2.30%
Year 1 PV (M)6,387.496,451.176,514.85
Year 2 PV (M)6,230.706,355.566,481.66
Year 3 PV (M)6,070.556,253.946,440.98
Year 4 PV (M)5,907.956,147.116,393.46
Year 5 PV (M)5,743.746,035.846,339.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)174,150.32183,006.71192,219.81
Equity Value (M)204,490.74214,250.33224,390.47
Shares Outstanding (M)18,584.6918,584.6918,584.69
Fair Value$11.00$11.53$12.07
Upside / Downside16.44%21.99%27.77%

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