Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. (600019.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.19 - $8.71$6.73
Multi-Stage$9.31 - $10.23$9.76
Blended Fair Value$8.25
Current Price$7.07
Upside16.67%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-9.84%9.50%0.370.270.510.780.340.620.620.380.240.20
YoY Growth--34.29%-46.58%-33.75%131.27%-45.78%0.24%64.54%56.26%17.39%37.46%
Dividend Yield--5.12%4.14%8.24%11.49%4.15%12.70%8.19%4.40%3.69%3.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9,439.23
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,758.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,680.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,887.851,179.90707.94
Cash Retained (M)6,680.486,680.486,680.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,887.85-1,179.90-707.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,792.635,500.575,972.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)21,574.7321,574.7321,574.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.220.250.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.220.250.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.380.40
WACC / Discount Rate6.69%6.69%6.69%
Growth Rate-0.05%0.95%1.95%
Fair Value$5.19$6.73$8.71
Upside / Downside-26.57%-4.74%23.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9,439.239,529.129,619.869,711.469,803.949,897.3010,194.22
Payout Ratio29.23%41.38%53.54%65.69%77.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,758.763,943.265,150.086,379.527,631.918,907.579,429.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.69%6.69%6.69%
Growth Rate-0.05%0.95%1.95%
Year 1 PV (M)3,659.363,695.973,732.58
Year 2 PV (M)4,435.204,524.394,614.46
Year 3 PV (M)5,098.435,252.995,410.65
Year 4 PV (M)5,660.195,890.136,127.00
Year 5 PV (M)6,130.656,443.536,769.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)175,840.91184,814.93194,151.66
Equity Value (M)200,824.73210,621.94220,805.41
Shares Outstanding (M)21,574.7321,574.7321,574.73
Fair Value$9.31$9.76$10.23
Upside / Downside31.66%38.08%44.76%

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