Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Nichias Corporation (5393.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5,105.26 - $8,121.87$6,477.04
Multi-Stage$4,595.84 - $5,012.22$4,800.28
Blended Fair Value$5,638.66
Current Price$5,558.00
Upside1.45%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS6.47%13.32%104.1696.6192.6384.3578.2476.1266.2258.5149.5035.25
YoY Growth--7.81%4.31%9.81%7.82%2.77%14.96%13.19%18.19%40.42%18.22%
Dividend Yield--1.89%2.03%3.10%3.74%2.80%3.39%3.30%2.11%1.91%2.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)30,353.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7,015.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)23,338.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6,070.603,794.132,276.48
Cash Retained (M)23,338.0023,338.0023,338.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-6,070.60-3,794.13-2,276.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)17,267.4019,543.8821,061.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)64.4264.4264.42
(=) Excess Retained per Share268.04303.38326.94
LTM Dividend per Share108.89108.89108.89
(+) Excess Retained per Share268.04303.38326.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend376.93412.27435.83
WACC / Discount Rate12.19%12.19%12.19%
Growth Rate4.47%5.47%6.47%
Fair Value$5,105.26$6,477.04$8,121.87
Upside / Downside-8.15%16.54%46.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)30,353.0032,013.8433,765.5635,613.1337,561.7939,617.0840,805.59
Payout Ratio23.11%36.49%49.87%63.24%76.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7,015.0011,681.5716,837.8222,523.3728,780.7035,655.3737,745.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate12.19%12.19%12.19%
Growth Rate4.47%5.47%6.47%
Year 1 PV (M)10,314.0310,412.7510,511.48
Year 2 PV (M)13,126.2413,378.7313,633.62
Year 3 PV (M)15,502.9715,952.4316,410.49
Year 4 PV (M)17,490.8318,170.1918,869.15
Year 5 PV (M)19,132.0320,065.3921,034.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)220,500.71231,257.81242,430.69
Equity Value (M)296,066.81309,237.29322,890.26
Shares Outstanding (M)64.4264.4264.42
Fair Value$4,595.84$4,800.28$5,012.22
Upside / Downside-17.31%-13.63%-9.82%

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