Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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LY Corporation (4689.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Internet Content & InformationSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$287.82 - $444.26$360.45
Multi-Stage$241.58 - $262.90$252.05
Blended Fair Value$306.25
Current Price$476.10
Upside-35.68%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-1.52%5.17%5.885.906.145.955.946.347.117.117.107.10
YoY Growth---0.38%-3.84%3.14%0.09%-6.32%-10.75%0.05%0.05%0.03%99.96%
Dividend Yield--1.11%1.56%1.77%1.50%1.07%1.21%2.24%1.93%1.45%1.57%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)204,524.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)49,910.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)154,614.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)40,904.8025,565.5015,339.30
Cash Retained (M)154,614.00154,614.00154,614.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-40,904.80-25,565.50-15,339.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)113,709.20129,048.50139,274.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,098.317,098.317,098.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share16.0218.1819.62
LTM Dividend per Share7.037.037.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share16.0218.1819.62
(=) Adjusted Dividend23.0525.2126.65
WACC / Discount Rate13.95%13.95%13.95%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$287.82$360.45$444.26
Upside / Downside-39.55%-24.29%-6.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)204,524.00217,818.06231,976.23247,054.69263,113.24280,215.60288,622.07
Payout Ratio24.40%37.52%50.64%63.76%76.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)49,910.0081,730.57117,476.95157,525.04202,283.04252,194.04266,975.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate13.95%13.95%13.95%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)71,051.9971,725.4772,398.95
Year 2 PV (M)88,784.2990,475.3892,182.42
Year 3 PV (M)103,496.29106,467.30109,494.63
Year 4 PV (M)115,538.42119,981.70124,551.92
Year 5 PV (M)125,225.71131,274.16137,554.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,210,735.471,269,214.451,329,931.55
Equity Value (M)1,714,832.181,789,138.461,866,113.58
Shares Outstanding (M)7,098.317,098.317,098.31
Fair Value$241.58$252.05$262.90
Upside / Downside-49.26%-47.06%-44.78%

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