Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Terumo Corporation (4543.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,363.84 - $7,583.45$3,817.82
Multi-Stage$1,549.29 - $1,692.87$1,619.78
Blended Fair Value$2,718.80
Current Price$2,443.00
Upside11.29%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS11.68%12.46%24.1321.6918.9015.8914.3313.8913.2510.739.848.94
YoY Growth--11.28%14.73%18.95%10.87%3.16%4.87%23.46%9.10%9.98%19.87%
Dividend Yield--0.91%0.85%0.83%0.78%0.64%0.68%0.81%0.68%0.89%0.82%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)130,671.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)38,460.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)92,211.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)26,134.2016,333.889,800.33
Cash Retained (M)92,211.0092,211.0092,211.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-26,134.20-16,333.88-9,800.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)66,076.8075,877.1382,410.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,476.071,476.071,476.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share44.7751.4055.83
LTM Dividend per Share26.0626.0626.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share44.7751.4055.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend70.8277.4681.89
WACC / Discount Rate8.66%8.66%8.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$2,363.84$3,817.82$7,583.45
Upside / Downside-3.24%56.28%210.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)130,671.00139,164.62148,210.31157,843.99168,103.84179,030.59184,401.51
Payout Ratio29.43%41.55%53.66%65.77%77.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)38,460.0057,817.5579,529.09103,818.85130,930.27161,127.53170,571.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.66%8.66%8.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)52,709.5953,209.2153,708.83
Year 2 PV (M)66,097.6467,356.6268,627.47
Year 3 PV (M)78,662.2180,920.3283,221.24
Year 4 PV (M)90,439.8893,917.9497,495.37
Year 5 PV (M)101,465.80106,366.63111,455.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,897,486.991,989,136.322,084,293.29
Equity Value (M)2,286,862.122,390,907.052,498,801.23
Shares Outstanding (M)1,476.071,476.071,476.07
Fair Value$1,549.29$1,619.78$1,692.87
Upside / Downside-36.58%-33.70%-30.71%

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