Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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FreeBit Co., Ltd. (3843.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Internet Content & InformationSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,354.30 - $2,090.41$1,696.04
Multi-Stage$1,125.39 - $1,225.25$1,174.44
Blended Fair Value$1,435.24
Current Price$1,517.00
Upside-5.39%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS28.11%14.78%26.517.856.957.227.547.687.697.757.687.73
YoY Growth--237.72%12.97%-3.75%-4.28%-1.83%-0.06%-0.87%0.99%-0.69%15.73%
Dividend Yield--1.75%0.57%0.59%0.81%0.97%1.04%0.70%0.75%0.86%0.99%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,749.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)537.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,212.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)549.86343.66206.20
Cash Retained (M)2,212.302,212.302,212.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-549.86-343.66-206.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,662.441,868.632,006.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)20.2820.2820.28
(=) Excess Retained per Share81.9892.1598.93
LTM Dividend per Share26.4826.4826.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share81.9892.1598.93
(=) Adjusted Dividend108.46118.63125.41
WACC / Discount Rate13.95%13.95%13.95%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,354.30$1,696.04$2,090.41
Upside / Downside-10.73%11.80%37.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,749.302,928.003,118.323,321.013,536.883,766.773,879.78
Payout Ratio19.53%33.63%47.72%61.81%75.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)537.00984.561,488.042,052.812,684.723,390.103,588.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate13.95%13.95%13.95%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)855.92864.04872.15
Year 2 PV (M)1,124.601,146.021,167.64
Year 3 PV (M)1,348.731,387.451,426.90
Year 4 PV (M)1,533.441,592.411,653.06
Year 5 PV (M)1,683.341,764.641,849.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,275.2017,061.3017,877.48
Equity Value (M)22,821.2323,815.8524,846.30
Shares Outstanding (M)20.2820.2820.28
Fair Value$1,125.39$1,174.44$1,225.25
Upside / Downside-25.81%-22.58%-19.23%

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