Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Lotes Co., Ltd (3533.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5,271.33 - $14,600.45$13,682.76
Multi-Stage$2,072.14 - $2,266.06$2,167.33
Blended Fair Value$7,925.04
Current Price$1,545.00
Upside412.95%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS26.34%24.38%25.7924.9415.0912.259.678.014.573.333.744.57
YoY Growth--3.38%65.34%23.21%26.67%20.69%75.10%37.50%-11.11%-18.18%57.14%
Dividend Yield--1.88%1.76%1.64%1.76%1.95%2.94%1.87%1.59%4.22%4.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,251.17
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,670.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,580.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,650.231,031.40618.84
Cash Retained (M)3,580.983,580.983,580.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,650.23-1,031.40-618.84
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,930.752,549.592,962.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)112.39112.39112.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share17.1822.6926.36
LTM Dividend per Share41.5541.5541.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share17.1822.6926.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend58.7364.2467.91
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$5,271.33$13,682.76$14,600.45
Upside / Downside241.19%785.62%845.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,251.178,787.509,358.699,967.0010,614.8611,304.8211,643.97
Payout Ratio56.60%63.28%69.96%76.64%83.32%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,670.195,560.756,547.357,638.728,844.3110,174.3410,770.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)5,163.835,212.775,261.72
Year 2 PV (M)5,646.025,753.565,862.12
Year 3 PV (M)6,116.966,292.566,471.48
Year 4 PV (M)6,576.846,829.767,089.91
Year 5 PV (M)7,025.837,365.187,717.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)202,358.96212,132.97222,281.06
Equity Value (M)232,888.44243,586.81254,683.81
Shares Outstanding (M)112.39112.39112.39
Fair Value$2,072.14$2,167.33$2,266.06
Upside / Downside34.12%40.28%46.67%

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