Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Focus Lightings Tech Co., Ltd. (300708.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$51.32 - $60.46$56.66
Multi-Stage$35.20 - $38.62$36.88
Blended Fair Value$46.77
Current Price$8.99
Upside420.23%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.92%21.14%0.150.050.050.050.100.080.070.030.020.02
YoY Growth--221.36%-2.91%-0.56%-52.36%24.23%14.78%174.65%12.87%34.08%-22.34%
Dividend Yield--1.30%0.51%0.46%0.36%0.92%1.21%1.00%0.17%1.04%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)209.04
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)102.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)106.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)41.8126.1315.68
Cash Retained (M)106.09106.09106.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-41.81-26.13-15.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)64.2879.9690.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)687.64687.64687.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.120.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.120.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.240.270.28
WACC / Discount Rate2.20%2.20%2.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$51.32$56.66$60.46
Upside / Downside470.80%530.23%572.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)209.04222.63237.10252.51268.92286.40295.00
Payout Ratio49.25%57.40%65.55%73.70%81.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)102.95127.79155.42186.10220.11257.76272.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.20%2.20%2.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)123.87125.04126.21
Year 2 PV (M)146.03148.81151.61
Year 3 PV (M)169.49174.36179.31
Year 4 PV (M)194.32201.79209.48
Year 5 PV (M)220.57231.23242.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)23,350.1724,477.9925,648.98
Equity Value (M)24,204.4425,359.2126,557.88
Shares Outstanding (M)687.64687.64687.64
Fair Value$35.20$36.88$38.62
Upside / Downside291.54%310.22%329.61%

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