Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Allwinnertech Technology Co.,Ltd. (300458.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.18 - $9.41$6.93
Multi-Stage$4.83 - $5.27$5.04
Blended Fair Value$5.99
Current Price$51.82
Upside-88.44%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.05%1.65%0.120.120.210.160.120.120.010.060.040.03
YoY Growth--0.68%-42.68%29.25%33.74%0.00%1,097.14%-83.43%56.21%33.33%-71.43%
Dividend Yield--0.29%0.77%0.98%0.73%0.86%1.07%0.10%0.60%0.27%0.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)294.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)163.79
(=) Cash Retained (M)130.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)58.8436.7722.06
Cash Retained (M)130.41130.41130.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-58.84-36.77-22.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)71.5793.64108.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)833.64833.64833.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.280.310.33
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate4.30%5.30%6.30%
Fair Value$5.18$6.93$9.41
Upside / Downside-90.01%-86.62%-81.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)294.20309.79326.21343.50361.70380.87392.30
Payout Ratio55.67%62.54%69.40%76.27%83.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)163.79193.74226.40261.98300.70342.79362.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate4.30%5.30%6.30%
Year 1 PV (M)174.47176.14177.82
Year 2 PV (M)183.61187.15190.72
Year 3 PV (M)191.33196.89202.55
Year 4 PV (M)197.77205.46213.38
Year 5 PV (M)203.03212.95223.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,075.183,225.453,381.54
Equity Value (M)4,025.394,204.044,389.27
Shares Outstanding (M)833.64833.64833.64
Fair Value$4.83$5.04$5.27
Upside / Downside-90.68%-90.27%-89.84%

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