Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

YanTai LongYuan Power Technology Co., Ltd. (300105.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.66 - $10.85$5.78
Multi-Stage$13.06 - $14.42$13.73
Blended Fair Value$9.76
Current Price$7.19
Upside35.69%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%6.11%0.150.200.000.100.200.000.000.000.000.04
YoY Growth---25.46%0.00%-100.00%-50.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-52.00%
Dividend Yield--2.17%3.27%0.00%1.89%3.70%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.48%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)79.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)51.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)28.01
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15.939.955.97
Cash Retained (M)28.0128.0128.01
(-) Cash Required (M)-15.93-9.95-5.97
(=) Excess Retained (M)12.0818.0622.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)513.75513.75513.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.040.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.040.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.140.14
WACC / Discount Rate1.32%1.32%1.32%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3.66$5.78$10.85
Upside / Downside-49.11%-19.55%50.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)79.6378.8378.0577.2776.4975.7378.00
Payout Ratio64.82%69.86%74.89%79.93%84.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)51.6255.0758.4561.7664.9968.1572.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.32%1.32%1.32%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)53.8154.3554.90
Year 2 PV (M)55.7956.9458.09
Year 3 PV (M)57.5959.3761.19
Year 4 PV (M)59.2161.6764.20
Year 5 PV (M)60.6763.8367.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,422.256,756.677,104.88
Equity Value (M)6,709.327,052.837,410.38
Shares Outstanding (M)513.75513.75513.75
Fair Value$13.06$13.73$14.42
Upside / Downside81.63%90.93%100.61%

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