Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Zhaojin Mining Industry Company Limited (1818.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: GoldSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$31.33 - $109.99$51.80
Multi-Stage$19.91 - $21.77$20.83
Blended Fair Value$36.32
Current Price$18.61
Upside95.14%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.33%-2.16%0.100.170.080.130.130.060.100.090.070.06
YoY Growth---38.70%107.51%-35.41%-5.58%141.07%-42.55%1.81%37.96%6.64%-50.05%
Dividend Yield--1.00%1.92%1.06%2.32%1.71%0.72%1.38%1.84%1.15%1.75%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,654.06
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)694.96
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,959.11
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)730.81456.76274.05
Cash Retained (M)2,959.112,959.112,959.11
(-) Cash Required (M)-730.81-456.76-274.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,228.292,502.352,685.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,269.653,269.653,269.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.680.770.82
LTM Dividend per Share0.210.210.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.680.770.82
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.890.981.03
WACC / Discount Rate8.51%8.51%8.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$31.33$51.80$109.99
Upside / Downside68.37%178.37%491.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,654.063,891.584,144.534,413.924,700.835,006.385,156.57
Payout Ratio19.02%33.22%47.41%61.61%75.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)694.961,292.591,964.972,719.313,563.404,505.744,769.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.51%8.51%8.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,180.031,191.211,202.40
Year 2 PV (M)1,637.651,668.841,700.33
Year 3 PV (M)2,068.972,128.362,188.88
Year 4 PV (M)2,475.102,570.282,668.19
Year 5 PV (M)2,857.102,995.103,138.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)54,888.9557,540.1160,292.73
Equity Value (M)65,107.7968,093.9071,190.90
Shares Outstanding (M)3,269.653,269.653,269.65
Fair Value$19.91$20.83$21.77
Upside / Downside7.00%11.91%17.00%

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