DDM Analysis: 1471.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$2.74 - $4.00	$3.35
Multi-Stage	$4.77 - $5.24	$5.00
Blended Fair Value	$4.17
Current Price	$13.83
Upside	-69.82%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	50.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	18.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)	31.15

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	10.03	6.27	3.76
Cash Retained (M)	31.15	31.15	31.15
(-) Cash Required (M)	-10.03	-6.27	-3.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)	21.12	24.88	27.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	137.76	137.76	137.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.15	0.18	0.20
LTM Dividend per Share	0.14	0.14	0.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.15	0.18	0.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.29	0.32	0.34
WACC / Discount Rate	8.42%	8.42%	8.42%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$2.74	$3.35	$4.00
Upside / Downside	-80.20%	-75.80%	-71.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	50.13	49.63	49.13	48.64	48.16	47.68	49.11
Payout Ratio	37.87%	48.29%	58.72%	69.15%	79.57%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	18.98	23.97	28.85	33.64	38.32	42.91	45.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.42%	8.42%	8.42%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	21.88	22.11	22.33
Year 2 PV (M)	24.05	24.55	25.04
Year 3 PV (M)	25.60	26.39	27.20
Year 4 PV (M)	26.63	27.73	28.87
Year 5 PV (M)	27.22	28.64	30.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)	531.81	559.50	588.33
Equity Value (M)	657.20	688.92	721.90
Shares Outstanding (M)	137.76	137.76	137.76
Fair Value	$4.77	$5.00	$5.24
Upside / Downside	-65.51%	-63.84%	-62.11%

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Zhongmiao (1471.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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