Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $5.76 - $7.78 | $6.79 |
| Multi-Stage | $15.98 - $17.73 | $16.83 |
| Blended Fair Value | $11.81 | |
| Current Price | $5.55 | |
| Upside | 112.85% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -31.79% | -14.31% | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -100.00% | -59.87% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 1.05% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 35.41% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 2.59% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 840.39 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 68.99 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 771.40 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 168.08 | 105.05 | 63.03 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 771.40 | 771.40 | 771.40 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -168.08 | -105.05 | -63.03 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 603.32 | 666.35 | 708.37 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 670.07 | 670.07 | 670.07 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.90 | 0.99 | 1.06 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.90 | 0.99 | 1.06 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.00 | 1.10 | 1.16 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.85% | 6.85% | 6.85% |
| Growth Rate | -9.01% | -8.01% | -7.01% |
| Fair Value | $5.76 | $6.79 | $7.78 |
| Upside / Downside | 3.71% | 22.40% | 40.23% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 840.39 | 773.05 | 711.11 | 654.13 | 601.72 | 553.50 | 570.11 |
| Payout Ratio | 8.21% | 24.57% | 40.93% | 57.28% | 73.64% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 68.99 | 189.92 | 291.03 | 374.71 | 443.12 | 498.15 | 527.35 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.85% | 6.85% | 6.85% |
| Growth Rate | -9.01% | -8.01% | -7.01% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 175.82 | 177.75 | 179.68 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 249.41 | 254.92 | 260.49 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 297.28 | 307.19 | 317.31 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 325.44 | 339.98 | 355.01 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 338.69 | 357.71 | 377.59 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 9,318.48 | 9,841.93 | 10,388.65 |
| Equity Value (M) | 10,705.11 | 11,279.49 | 11,878.74 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 670.07 | 670.07 | 670.07 |
| Fair Value | $15.98 | $16.83 | $17.73 |
| Upside / Downside | 187.86% | 203.30% | 219.42% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MDC | M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. | 0.86% | $0.54 | 55.94% |
| AXP | American Express Company | 0.85% | $3.17 | 20.85% |
| FOXA | Fox Corporation | 0.85% | $0.62 | 13.96% |
| LMST | Limestone Bancorp, Inc. | 0.85% | $0.20 | 8.06% |
| RCL | Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. | 0.85% | $2.41 | 16.19% |
| AZZ | AZZ Inc. | 0.84% | $0.92 | 8.89% |
| HIBB | Hibbett, Inc. | 0.84% | $0.74 | 9.00% |
| MAR | Marriott International, Inc. | 0.84% | $2.62 | 27.38% |
| MORN | Morningstar, Inc. | 0.84% | $1.77 | 20.03% |
| SGH | SMART Global Holdings, Inc. | 0.84% | $0.14 | 30.96% |
| URI | United Rentals, Inc. | 0.84% | $7.13 | 18.10% |
| 0HYJ.L | Cintas Corporation | 0.83% | $1.54 | 34.15% |
| EFX | Equifax Inc. | 0.83% | $1.78 | 33.46% |
| GM | General Motors Company | 0.82% | $0.66 | 21.22% |
| KVSA | Khosla Ventures Acquisition Co. | 0.81% | $0.09 | 9.61% |
| WMT | Walmart Inc. | 0.81% | $0.91 | 31.92% |
| BMI | Badger Meter, Inc. | 0.80% | $1.41 | 30.10% |
| FRD | Friedman Industries, Incorporated | 0.80% | $0.16 | 9.82% |
| ITT | ITT Inc. | 0.80% | $1.40 | 22.66% |
| MLI | Mueller Industries, Inc. | 0.80% | $0.94 | 13.89% |
| SSSSL | SuRo Capital Corp. 6.00% Notes due 2026 | 0.80% | $0.20 | 8.46% |
| RGLD | Royal Gold, Inc. | 0.79% | $1.75 | 24.00% |
| VRSK | Verisk Analytics, Inc. | 0.79% | $1.74 | 26.41% |
| COF | Capital One Financial Corporation | 0.78% | $1.94 | 87.57% |
| EE | Excelerate Energy, Inc. | 0.78% | $0.22 | 9.21% |
| 0K36.L | Moody's Corporation | 0.77% | $3.82 | 30.70% |
| HCI | HCI Group, Inc. | 0.77% | $1.42 | 9.00% |
| PH | Parker-Hannifin Corporation | 0.77% | $6.85 | 24.15% |
| SEI | Solaris Energy Infrastructure, Inc. | 0.77% | $0.39 | 44.96% |
| 0HQN.L | Cboe Global Markets, Inc. | 0.76% | $1.90 | 20.31% |
| ASIC | Ategrity Specialty Holdings LLC | 0.76% | $0.15 | 12.77% |
| GL | Globe Life Inc. | 0.75% | $1.03 | 7.35% |
| 0KYY.L | S&P Global Inc. | 0.74% | $3.81 | 28.09% |
| PHM | PulteGroup, Inc. | 0.74% | $0.89 | 6.67% |
| ROP | Roper Technologies, Inc. | 0.74% | $3.20 | 22.09% |
| ZWS | Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation | 0.74% | $0.35 | 30.63% |
| JOE | The St. Joe Company | 0.73% | $0.43 | 24.05% |
| TOL | Toll Brothers, Inc. | 0.73% | $0.99 | 7.16% |
| TTEK | Tetra Tech, Inc. | 0.73% | $0.25 | 26.25% |
| 0HCB.L | Alcoa Corporation | 0.72% | $0.40 | 9.08% |
| A | Agilent Technologies, Inc. | 0.72% | $0.99 | 21.64% |
| FCFS | FirstCash Holdings, Inc | 0.72% | $1.13 | 16.40% |
| TRAK | ReposiTrak, Inc. | 0.72% | $0.09 | 22.94% |
| BKNG | Booking Holdings Inc. | 0.71% | $37.78 | 24.39% |
| PGC | Peapack-Gladstone Financial Corporation | 0.71% | $0.20 | 10.22% |
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | 0.70% | $0.37 | 6.63% |
| BRO | Brown & Brown, Inc. | 0.70% | $0.54 | 18.02% |
| INTU | Intuit Inc. | 0.70% | $4.39 | 29.97% |
| MSFT | Microsoft Corporation | 0.70% | $3.31 | 23.52% |
| NCR | NCR Corporation | 0.70% | $0.11 | 1.70% |