Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Hang Lung Properties Limited (0101.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.80 - $5.04$4.45
Multi-Stage$12.84 - $14.26$13.53
Blended Fair Value$8.99
Current Price$7.49
Upside20.03%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-19.17%-10.07%0.250.760.760.750.740.730.730.730.730.73
YoY Growth---66.83%0.00%1.33%1.32%1.30%0.00%0.03%0.00%-1.11%1.40%
Dividend Yield--4.02%6.97%4.95%4.65%3.60%4.25%4.87%3.82%4.42%4.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,641.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,540.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,101.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)928.20580.13348.08
Cash Retained (M)2,101.002,101.002,101.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-928.20-580.13-348.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,172.801,520.881,752.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,643.674,643.674,643.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.330.38
LTM Dividend per Share0.550.550.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.330.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.800.870.92
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate-12.07%-11.07%-10.07%
Fair Value$3.80$4.45$5.04
Upside / Downside-49.25%-40.65%-32.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,641.004,127.293,670.443,264.162,902.862,581.542,658.99
Payout Ratio54.73%61.78%68.84%75.89%82.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,540.002,549.992,526.652,477.232,407.802,323.392,459.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate-12.07%-11.07%-10.07%
Year 1 PV (M)2,369.092,396.032,422.98
Year 2 PV (M)2,180.882,230.772,281.22
Year 3 PV (M)1,986.542,055.092,125.20
Year 4 PV (M)1,793.881,876.891,962.74
Year 5 PV (M)1,608.191,701.741,799.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)49,699.4652,590.5355,614.59
Equity Value (M)59,638.0462,851.0466,206.31
Shares Outstanding (M)4,643.674,643.674,643.67
Fair Value$12.84$13.53$14.26
Upside / Downside71.47%80.70%90.35%

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