DDM Analysis: 002907.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$2.55 - $4.58	$3.40
Multi-Stage	$2.49 - $2.71	$2.60
Blended Fair Value	$3.00
Current Price	$16.32
Upside	-81.62%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	19.05%	21.14%	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.03	0.05	0.04	0.07	0.00	0.01	0.01
YoY Growth	-	-	17.67%	30.92%	71.96%	-30.84%	30.56%	-49.89%	2,594.63%	-55.83%	-29.36%	-32.45%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.64%	0.51%	0.31%	0.20%	0.37%	0.19%	0.30%	0.01%	0.09%	0.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	74.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	56.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)	18.23

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	14.92	9.33	5.60
Cash Retained (M)	18.23	18.23	18.23
(-) Cash Required (M)	-14.92	-9.33	-5.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)	3.31	8.91	12.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	417.68	417.68	417.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.01	0.02	0.03
LTM Dividend per Share	0.13	0.13	0.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.01	0.02	0.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.14	0.16	0.17
WACC / Discount Rate	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%
Growth Rate	4.17%	5.17%	6.17%
Fair Value	$2.55	$3.40	$4.58
Upside / Downside	-84.36%	-79.16%	-71.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	74.61	78.46	82.52	86.78	91.27	95.98	98.86
Payout Ratio	75.56%	78.45%	81.34%	84.22%	87.11%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	56.38	61.55	67.12	73.09	79.50	86.38	91.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%
Growth Rate	4.17%	5.17%	6.17%
Year 1 PV (M)	55.43	55.96	56.49
Year 2 PV (M)	54.42	55.47	56.53
Year 3 PV (M)	53.36	54.92	56.50
Year 4 PV (M)	52.27	54.30	56.40
Year 5 PV (M)	51.14	53.64	56.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)	773.37	811.21	850.52
Equity Value (M)	1,039.98	1,085.49	1,132.67
Shares Outstanding (M)	417.68	417.68	417.68
Fair Value	$2.49	$2.60	$2.71
Upside / Downside	-84.74%	-84.08%	-83.38%

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Chongqing Pharscin Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (002907.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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