DDM Analysis: 002893.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$5.07 - $10.03	$7.02
Multi-Stage	$8.64 - $9.50	$9.06
Blended Fair Value	$8.04
Current Price	$11.26
Upside	-28.61%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-10.54%	5.51%	0.12	0.09	0.12	0.10	0.06	0.20	0.12	0.06	0.05	0.07
YoY Growth	-	-	28.34%	-26.24%	19.90%	74.29%	-71.03%	76.05%	81.21%	19.54%	-20.37%	-1.80%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.18%	0.88%	1.38%	1.23%	0.45%	2.60%	1.18%	0.42%	0.73%	0.92%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	81.94
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	35.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)	46.86

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	16.39	10.24	6.15
Cash Retained (M)	46.86	46.86	46.86
(-) Cash Required (M)	-16.39	-10.24	-6.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)	30.47	36.61	40.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	264.21	264.21	264.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.12	0.14	0.15
LTM Dividend per Share	0.13	0.13	0.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.12	0.14	0.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.25	0.27	0.29
WACC / Discount Rate	6.02%	6.02%	6.02%
Growth Rate	1.07%	2.07%	3.07%
Fair Value	$5.07	$7.02	$10.03
Upside / Downside	-54.99%	-37.70%	-10.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	81.94	83.64	85.38	87.15	88.95	90.80	93.52
Payout Ratio	42.82%	52.25%	61.69%	71.13%	80.56%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	35.09	43.71	52.67	61.98	71.66	81.72	86.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.02%	6.02%	6.02%
Growth Rate	1.07%	2.07%	3.07%
Year 1 PV (M)	40.82	41.22	41.63
Year 2 PV (M)	45.94	46.86	47.78
Year 3 PV (M)	50.50	52.01	53.55
Year 4 PV (M)	54.53	56.72	58.97
Year 5 PV (M)	58.07	61.00	64.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,033.92	2,136.55	2,243.27
Equity Value (M)	2,283.78	2,394.35	2,509.25
Shares Outstanding (M)	264.21	264.21	264.21
Fair Value	$8.64	$9.06	$9.50
Upside / Downside	-23.24%	-19.52%	-15.66%

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Beijing Jingneng Thermal Co. Ltd. Class A (002893.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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