DDM Analysis: 002510.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.80 - $1.44	$1.07
Multi-Stage	$1.00 - $1.09	$1.04
Blended Fair Value	$1.06
Current Price	$7.40
Upside	-85.72%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-7.48%	4.28%	0.07	0.04	0.02	0.03	0.07	0.11	0.08	0.05	0.06	0.06
YoY Growth	-	-	108.34%	71.91%	-22.75%	-63.49%	-32.90%	43.59%	41.80%	-6.10%	3.44%	13.50%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.39%	0.80%	0.54%	0.72%	1.84%	2.20%	1.52%	0.92%	0.94%	0.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	56.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	35.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)	21.40

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	11.38	7.11	4.27
Cash Retained (M)	21.40	21.40	21.40
(-) Cash Required (M)	-11.38	-7.11	-4.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)	10.02	14.29	17.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	999.55	999.55	999.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.01	0.01	0.02
LTM Dividend per Share	0.04	0.04	0.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.01	0.01	0.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.05	0.05	0.05
WACC / Discount Rate	8.09%	8.09%	8.09%
Growth Rate	2.28%	3.28%	4.28%
Fair Value	$0.80	$1.07	$1.44
Upside / Downside	-89.16%	-85.54%	-80.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	56.92	58.79	60.72	62.71	64.77	66.90	68.91
Payout Ratio	62.40%	67.92%	73.44%	78.96%	84.48%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	35.52	39.93	44.59	49.52	54.72	60.21	63.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.09%	8.09%	8.09%
Growth Rate	2.28%	3.28%	4.28%
Year 1 PV (M)	36.58	36.94	37.30
Year 2 PV (M)	37.43	38.16	38.91
Year 3 PV (M)	38.08	39.21	40.36
Year 4 PV (M)	38.55	40.08	41.66
Year 5 PV (M)	38.86	40.80	42.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)	807.78	848.04	889.90
Equity Value (M)	997.28	1,043.23	1,090.93
Shares Outstanding (M)	999.55	999.55	999.55
Fair Value	$1.00	$1.04	$1.09
Upside / Downside	-86.52%	-85.90%	-85.25%

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Tianjin Motor Dies Co.,Ltd. (002510.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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