Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guangdong Haid Group Co., Limited (002311.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$131.83 - $599.95$301.82
Multi-Stage$69.16 - $75.62$72.33
Blended Fair Value$187.08
Current Price$63.77
Upside193.36%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.81%13.37%0.680.710.450.490.460.430.340.340.280.21
YoY Growth---3.94%58.69%-8.99%6.78%7.79%24.50%0.55%23.51%33.98%6.01%
Dividend Yield--1.37%1.60%0.77%0.90%0.59%1.06%1.20%1.41%1.67%1.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,022.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,984.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,038.15
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,004.52627.82376.69
Cash Retained (M)3,038.153,038.153,038.15
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,004.52-627.82-376.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,033.632,410.322,661.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,664.911,664.911,664.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.221.451.60
LTM Dividend per Share1.191.191.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.221.451.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.412.642.79
WACC / Discount Rate7.43%7.43%7.43%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$131.83$301.82$599.95
Upside / Downside106.72%373.30%840.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,022.605,349.075,696.766,067.056,461.416,881.407,087.84
Payout Ratio39.51%49.61%59.71%69.80%79.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,984.452,653.593,401.324,235.055,162.806,193.266,556.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.43%7.43%7.43%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,446.842,470.032,493.22
Year 2 PV (M)2,891.952,947.043,002.64
Year 3 PV (M)3,320.273,415.593,512.71
Year 4 PV (M)3,732.263,875.794,023.42
Year 5 PV (M)4,128.354,327.764,534.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)98,621.39103,384.84108,330.60
Equity Value (M)115,141.06120,421.04125,897.38
Shares Outstanding (M)1,664.911,664.911,664.91
Fair Value$69.16$72.33$75.62
Upside / Downside8.45%13.42%18.58%

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