DDM Analysis: 002267.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$25.39 - $120.58	$55.63
Multi-Stage	$14.45 - $15.78	$15.10
Blended Fair Value	$35.37
Current Price	$8.12
Upside	335.55%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	37.18%	13.48%	0.49	0.30	0.60	0.20	0.20	0.10	0.30	0.15	0.20	0.15
YoY Growth	-	-	61.92%	-50.00%	200.00%	0.00%	100.00%	-66.67%	100.00%	-25.00%	33.33%	9.37%
Dividend Yield	-	-	6.00%	4.57%	8.28%	3.18%	3.03%	1.72%	3.47%	2.16%	2.13%	1.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	674.94
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	576.27
(=) Cash Retained (M)	98.67

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	134.99	84.37	50.62
Cash Retained (M)	98.67	98.67	98.67
(-) Cash Required (M)	-134.99	-84.37	-50.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-36.32	14.30	48.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,112.13	1,112.13	1,112.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.03	0.01	0.04
LTM Dividend per Share	0.52	0.52	0.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.03	0.01	0.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.49	0.53	0.56
WACC / Discount Rate	7.41%	7.41%	7.41%
Growth Rate	5.39%	6.39%	7.39%
Fair Value	$25.39	$55.63	$120.58
Upside / Downside	212.64%	585.09%	1,384.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	674.94	718.10	764.01	812.86	864.84	920.13	947.74
Payout Ratio	85.38%	86.31%	87.23%	88.15%	89.08%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	576.27	619.75	666.44	716.56	770.36	828.12	876.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.41%	7.41%	7.41%
Growth Rate	5.39%	6.39%	7.39%
Year 1 PV (M)	571.58	577.00	582.42
Year 2 PV (M)	566.86	577.66	588.57
Year 3 PV (M)	562.11	578.26	594.72
Year 4 PV (M)	557.34	578.79	600.86
Year 5 PV (M)	552.55	579.27	607.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)	13,265.35	13,906.73	14,572.68
Equity Value (M)	16,075.78	16,797.72	17,546.27
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,112.13	1,112.13	1,112.13
Fair Value	$14.45	$15.10	$15.78
Upside / Downside	78.02%	86.01%	94.30%

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Shaanxi Provincial Natural Gas Co.,Ltd (002267.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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