Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Yalian Machinery Co Ltd (001395.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$57.42 - $176.88$91.75
Multi-Stage$199.27 - $220.19$209.52
Blended Fair Value$150.64
Current Price$49.39
Upside204.99%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.790.010.162.340.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---99.46%6,011.29%-91.74%-93.34%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.01%1.59%0.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)168.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)50.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)117.88
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)33.6521.0312.62
Cash Retained (M)117.88117.88117.88
(-) Cash Required (M)-33.65-21.03-12.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)84.2396.85105.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)70.8670.8670.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.191.371.49
LTM Dividend per Share0.710.710.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.191.371.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.902.082.20
WACC / Discount Rate1.24%1.24%1.24%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$57.42$91.75$176.88
Upside / Downside16.27%85.77%258.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)168.24166.56164.90163.25161.61160.00164.80
Payout Ratio29.94%41.95%53.96%65.97%77.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)50.3769.8788.98107.70126.04144.00152.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.24%1.24%1.24%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)68.3269.0169.71
Year 2 PV (M)85.0786.8188.57
Year 3 PV (M)100.67103.79106.96
Year 4 PV (M)115.19119.97124.89
Year 5 PV (M)128.68135.38142.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,622.3914,331.7415,070.34
Equity Value (M)14,120.3314,846.7115,602.84
Shares Outstanding (M)70.8670.8670.86
Fair Value$199.27$209.52$220.19
Upside / Downside303.47%324.22%345.83%

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